WCA Report: ASEAN's Energy Equation

"ASEAN's Energy Equation", a new report co-authored by the ASEAN Centre for Energy and World Coal Association, considers the role of low emission coal in driving a sustainable energy future in the ASEAN region.

Introduction

ASEAN’s Energy Equation – the role of low emission coal in driving a sustainable energy future provides comprehensive analysis for the energy security and sustainable development opportunities that cleaner coal technologies (CCTs)  promote as identified in ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025. The report’s insights provide the framework for the ‘Call to Action’ as detailed in the conclusion.

The World Coal Association (WCA), in collaboration with the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), launched this report at a joint event in Jakarta on 17 May 2017.

IN SUMMARY:
  • Introduction
  • I: Coal will be an important guarantor for sustained growth In ASEAN
  • II: CCT: Delivering cleaner energy while ensuring economic competitiveness
  • III: Action on cleaner coal in Asia brings global benefits
  • Call for action
  • Resources

I: Coal will be an important guarantor for sustained growth in ASEAN

The removal of subsidies, price volatility and international competition has led to average gas prices being twice that of coal on an energy equivalent basis.

The unprecedented pace and scale of economic development in ASEAN has driven a surge in demand for electricity. Between 1990 and 2014, while the region’s economy grew by 5% per year on average, electricity generation grew by 7.4% reaching 843 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2014. 

Natural gas has historically dominated ASEAN’s electricity supply. In 2013, according to the IEA, gas was responsible for 44% of electricity generation, compared to 22% globally. In the recent past, coal generation has played an important, albeit supporting, role to gas – producing a third of electricity generation in 2013, compared to 41% globally. 

From 2010, however, there has been an undeniable transition in regional economies toward coal-fuelled power generation. As a result, the share of gas in electricity generation declined 5% between 2010 and 2014, while the share of coal in the same period rose from 27% to 34%.

II: CCT: Delivering cleaner energy while ensuring economic competitiveness

With the use of coal projected to continue to grow over the coming decades, a cleaner coal technology pathway is necessary if international climate objectives are to be met. ASEAN's Energy Equation highlights three key steps on this cleaner coal technology pathway:

  1. Pollution control technology – Greater deployment required to manage rise in pollutants
  2. HELE – Improving regional coal efficiency while reducing global carbon emissions
  3. CCS – Vital to delivering long-term regional carbon reduction

HELE reconciles international commitments to reduce carbon with the economic priorities of generating affordable and reliable electricity.

III: Action on cleaner coal in Asia brings global benefits

Investment in HELE is a more effective carbon reduction strategy than transitioning to renewables in ASEAN.

Electricity markets in ASEAN undeniably face a very different set of challenges compared to more mature markets. In 2016, the World Economic Forum (WEF) considered potential policy approaches for fast growing economies, such as ASEAN. The report recognised the need for newly industrialising economies to balance security, affordability and sustainability. Central to this premise, WEF encouraged energy stakeholders to adopt the most efficient pathway to policy objectives.

For ASEAN, the most efficient pathway undeniably includes a significant role for HELE coal generation.

ASEAN's Energy Equation considers a hypothetical scenario in which policy makers had $1 billion to spend with the objective of producing
the highest levels of electricity with the lowest emissions profile. The graph below plots several potential approaches:

  • In the first scenario, the investment could be directed to continue the transition in Europe from gas (CCGT – baseline) to renewables. This would result in moderate reduction in emissions, although much lower levels of electricity generation.
  • Secondly, the investment could fund a transition away from subcritical (SubC – baseline) to wind and solar deployment in ASEAN. This too is impractical given the much lower levels of electricity generated.
  • In the final scenario, for the same level of expenditure, investment in HELE would achieve a similar level of CO2 emissions reduction to the deployment of renewables in Europe, while generating up to three times more electricity.

Call for action

Coal will play an increasingly prominent role in the regional energy mix over the coming decades. Increased uptake of CCT will ensure a holistic energy policy integrating social, economic and environmental imperatives. 

Based on the report analysis:

  1. ASEAN should reaffirm the regional strategies and strategic action plans for CCT.

  2. ASEAN should support the transition away from the least efficient technology in favour of HELE coal. With improved levels of support from partners, ASEAN should endeavour to enhance the level of action, including pledging to end the use of subcritical coal.

  3. ASEAN member states call on the international community to provide support for the deployment of CCT.

Resources

Link
ASEAN's Energy Equation

Link
Southeast Asia can accelerate achievement of Paris Agreement goals