Energy Poverty in Southern Africa
Ecoal Vol 76, November 2011
Southern Africa faces both energy and climate challenges. In November the world convenes for the next major round of climate negotiations, COP17/MOP7*. These talks come at a crucial moment with the Kyoto Protocol set to expire in 2012. The talks also come on the eve of the Rio+20 conference, set to be a major forum for discussion of global sustainability issues, which will take place in Rio de Janeiro in June 2012. 2012 will also be the International Year of Sustainable Energy for All.
The South African Government has said these negotiations should focus on issues of importance to developing countries, particularly Africa. The talks will come at a point when negotiations for a global binding climate treaty appear to be struggling to gain traction amid disagreements between developed and developing countries about how to treat some of the world's biggest CO2 emitters.
By emphasising the need to focus on issues of importance to developing countries, the South African Government has highlighted the key development challenges faced by these nations in a carbon constrained world. In this context, access to energy will have a key role to play in the debates.
Energy poverty in Africa
Globally there are 1.3 billion people who lack access to electricity. According to the IEA 587 million of these are in Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for only 12% of the global population but almost 45% of those without access to electricity. Globally, 84% of people without access to electricity live in rural areas. In its World Energy Outlook 2010 the IEA estimated that in 2030 more than 1.5 million people a year will die prematurely because they lack access to modern energy sources.
Providing energy access is a key challenge, and is likely to be a major focus at the Rio+20 conference. All forms of energy have a role to play. Supporting increased electrification in villages with off-grid renewables and providing access to clean cooking fuels will help reduce the health impacts of burning wood and dung in the home and provide increased lighting and enable use of small electrical appliances in homes.
However grid-based energy solutions are needed to ensure consistency of electricity supply and avoid the hazards of intermittency that exist with off-grid renewable solutions.
It is well known that a reliable grid-based energy supply -incorporating significant increases in base load power generation - is necessary to provide basic services like food, water, health care, and education. All of these are crucial to alleviating poverty.
Reliable base load power generation also has significant macroeconomic benefits. Base load power generation is an essential foundation for business and industry. Without reliable electricity supplies businesses and industries struggle to grow and become competitive creating additional hurdles to economic development in an increasingly globalised economy.
In October the IEA released the special preview chapter of the 2011 World Energy Outlook on financing energy access to all. To meet the targets set in the chapter, the financing challenge is not particularly significant, around $48 billion a year. However the targets are small. Even the IEA's own definition only anticipates the energy target supporting the "use of a floor fan, a mobile phone, and two compact fluorescent light bulbs for about five hours a day. In urban areas, consumption might also include an efficient refrigerator, a second mobile phone per household and another appliance, such as a small television or a computer."
Critically, the definition also states "some other categories are excluded, such as electricity access to business and public buildings that are crucial to economic and social development." Other studies that take into account whole economy energy needs, including business and industry, show that global investments in energy need to at least quadruple to bring sub-Saharan Africa to the level of electricity access that exists in South Africa, a country that has significant electricity access challenges itself.
Coal in Africa
Many African countries have coal reserves, however South Africa has by far the most abundant reserves and has already developed a significant coal industry.
While the reserves in other sub-Saharan countries are dwarfed by those of South Africa, many have sizeable deposits that could supply secure and reliable energy to help grow their domestic economies.
South Africa obtains over 90% of its electricity from coal and has developed extensive coal conversion projects, especially coal-to-liquids. Currently around 30% of the South Africa's gasoline and diesel needs are produced from indigenous coal.
The essential nature of coal for sub-Saharan African electricity supply was demonstrated by the World Bank's decision in 2010 to approve funding for the construction of the Medupi super-critical coal plant. Announcing the funding package, World Bank Group President Robert Zoellick said "coal is still the least-cost, most viable, and technically feasible option for meeting the base load power needs required by Africa's largest economy."
South Africa's considerable coal resources also make it a key member of the Southern African Power Pool which establishes a common power grid and a common power market across countries in the Southern African Development Community. These resources allow South Africa to export electricity to a number of countries in the area - including Botswana, Namibia and Mozambique - all countries where over half the population has no electricity.
Climate and energy poverty - integrated priorities
An effective and sustainable climate response will need to integrate environmental imperatives with energy security and economic development. The world's least developed countries need access to low cost energy, but they are also the most vulnerable to the impacts of policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As demand for energy increases, affordable and sustainable sources of energy are key to addressing the challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions whilst achieving access to energy. While to some commentators, addressing these challenges together seems contradictory, the reality is that that they must be addressed as integrated priorities.
Addressing the African Energy Ministers Conference on 15 September 2011 the new IEA Executive Director, Maria van der Hoeven made clear that climate sustainability and energy access can be balanced. She specifically noted the need for energy targets to be included as an outcome from the Rio+20 Summit in order to achieve the Millennium Development Goals and that sound energy policies are key to economic growth and poverty alleviation.
These energy needs can be met without impacting on climate ambitions. The special Energy for All chapter of this year's WEO released by the IEA highlights that achieving the Energy for All case they set out would only increase CO2 emissions by 0.8% while avoiding the premature deaths of 1.5 million people. As Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations noted recently "the choice of fuels for bringing electricity to those who don't have it will make almost no difference to climate; there is no significant climate based reason to tilt energy access efforts strongly towards renewable."
Of course renewables have their part to play, but all energy sources, including coal, are needed to meet the challenge.
Prospects for COP17/MOP7*
Balancing the two priorities of developing an international agreement to address climate change whilst also enabling developing countries to further their efforts to eradicate poverty will be a major challenge for the COP presidency. Disagreement continues about the future role of the Kyoto Protocol and the differentiated responsibilities of both developed and developing countries in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
There is little expectation that any significant progress can be made in Durban on a comprehensive climate treaty, although some commentators expect to see a new plan of action toward drafting a new treaty to be agreed. There are however some opportunities for progress on issues that will help developing countries grow their economies whilst mitigating climate change. During 2011 progress on the establishment of the Green Climate Fund, the Technology Mechanism and inclusion of CSS in the CDM has been impressive and there is an expectation that the remaining issues for these key mechanisms can be resolved in Durban.
If that is the case, then at least some mechanisms will be in place to enable developing economies to address both their energy and climate challenges together.
*COP17/MOP7 - the full title of the talks is the 17th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 7th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.
