Compromise in Cancun
Ecoal, January 2011, Vol. 73
UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres and COP President Patricia Espinosa after agreement is reached in Cancun
A common mantra among business consultants is "under-promise, over-deliver". This saying could be applied to the recent international climate negotiations that took place in Cancun, Mexico between 28 November and 10 December 2010.
The 16th Conference of the Parties and 6th Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (COP16/CMP6) began with very low expectations amid speculation that the UN climate process was destined for failure. What came out of the Cancun summit surprised many and the last minute set of agreements seems to have gotten the UN climate process back on track.
Journey to Cancun
2010 proved to be a year of ups and downs for the climate negotiations process. The entire year was marked by the wounds left from the Copenhagen conference which had been expected to deliver a major global climate agreement, but ended in what many described as failure, with the non-binding Copenhagen Accord being pulled together at the last minute.
The damage done to the climate negotiations process in Copenhagen was noticeable throughout 2010 with a lot of effort being put into rebuilding trust in the process and many parties resorting to their long held positions without being willing to compromise to find solutions.
Much of the year was spent debating the role to be played by the Copenhagen Accord and what the future might hold for the Kyoto Protocol - with little agreement being reached on either issue. Expectations for the Cancun conference were further dampened when very little progress was made at the final negotiating session before COP16/CMP6 in October in Tianjin, China.
The Mexican Government pushed hard even before the conference to obtain a positive outcome from Cancun. They urged that agreement be sought in a few select areas, particularly on forestry and finance. Many countries, however, argued that any future outcome must be a "complete package" to avoid a piecemeal approach with some issues being sidelined altogether. With no clear short or long-term roadmap for the way forward, many commentators were beginning to speculate that the UN climate process was becoming an endless road. Others began to call for an increased focus on bilateral, regional or multilateral efforts to address climate change outside the UNFCCC process.
Compromise Saves the Day
When negotiations in Cancun got under way the warm, tropical atmosphere provided a serene environment for national delegations, but it quickly began to look as though the more than usual relaxed atmosphere was being reflected in the minimal progress being made. While many observers noted the convivial spirit compared well to the previous year's talks in Copenhagen, they also noted the limited progress being made on many of the key issues. Though not a new development, Japan's insistence early in the conference that it would not sign up to a second commitment period in the Kyoto Protocol under any circumstances soured the mood early.
As the first week of the conference drew to a close and parties prepared for the commencement of the high-level segment in the second week, there had been little movement on the key issues identified for progress in Cancun. Issues such as forestry (called REDD+), financing and negotiations about measuring, reporting and verification of national actions were continuing to flounder, despite the Mexican presidency of the COP putting a positive spin on progress.
The key issue of the inclusion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the Clean Development Mechanism was in a similar situation to many of the other major questions under consideration. By the end of the first week a text had been agreed. It contained two options; one to include CCS in the CDM (subject to further work) and another to exclude it. To many observers this seemed a positive step, however those lobbying for this much-needed reform were all too aware that the final outcome would hinge on political compromises being achieved on other major issues in the second week.
As the second week got under way, the COP President Patricia Espinosa and UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres intensified their calls for parties to take a balanced approach to negotiations to enable compromise and enlisted Ministers from a number of countries to lead discussions on some of the major outstanding issues. While many were cautious about this approach, recalling similar 'secret' negotiations that took place in Copenhagen, the open and frank approach of the Mexican leadership ultimately yielded a result.
Mexican President Felipe Calderdon addresses the conference
Debate in the main plenary hall continued well past the scheduled 6.00pm Friday closing time and into the early hours of Saturday morning before parties and observers broke into applause as Patricia Espinosa brought down the gavel confirming a final conclusion to the conference and the adoption of the 'Cancun Agreements'. Despite the sole opposition of Bolivia, two texts were agreed relating to the Kyoto Protocol and a post-Kyoto climate treaty.
The agreements call on developed countries to raise the level of ambition for emission reductions to be achieved individually or jointly, with a view to meeting the maximum 2 degree warming goal initially flagged, but not formally agreed in Copenhagen. The agreements form the basis of what could be decided when parties convene again in Durban at the end of 2011, when a successor to the Kyoto Protocol could be agreed.
They also establish a number of bodies, including the Cancun Adaptation Framework, an Adaptation Committee, a technology transfer mechanism and most significantly the Green Climate Fund. This fund will be responsible for deploying the financial commitments made by developing countries in Copenhagen of US$100 billion a year by 2020. In a landmark achievement, the conference agreed to include CCS in the CDM, subject to a work programme to develop the appropriate guidelines which will occur throughout 2011.
2011 & Beyond
2011 will be a busy year in the UNFCCC process as parties seek to build upon the momentum of a successful conclusion to the Cancun conference. While there has been agreement reached in Cancun, this has only been achieved because many of the more complex and controversial issues have been set to one side to enable further negotiating time during 2011.
This will become clear in 2011 on issues such as CCS in the CDM. While at Cancun, Brazil, historically the main opponent to CCS in the CDM, did soften their opposition. It remains to be seen, however, whether their ongoing concerns about inclusion of CCS in the CDM can be successfully addressed in draft guidelines that will be prepared this year. It is clear that Brazil saw CCS in the CDM as a political trade-off issue in order to secure outcomes on other issues, particularly REDD+, and so agreed to allow it to progress in Cancun. The question remains as to whether further roadblocks will be put up as the detail of CCS in the CDM is negotiated throughout 2011.
Similarly, dealing with the technicalities of other issues may well see the progress made in Cancun derailed in 2011 if the momentum and spirit of compromise that existed in the final hours of the Cancun conference is not maintained.
"Balance" was the magic word in Cancun and parties will need to remember this in order to make further progress on the details and lead to another successful outcome at COP17 in Durban, South Africa in December. As a number of commentators have noted, despite the positive result in Cancun, the path to an agreement in Durban is far from clear.
The main benefit of the Cancun Agreements is that it shows the multilateral process can still work. Leading up to the conference and as difficulties began to arise during the two weeks, many observers were beginning to speculate that failure to reach an outcome in Cancun would do irreparable damage not only to the UNFCCC process but also to multilateral negotiations processes more generally.
The Green Climate Fund, the Cancun Adaptation Framework, CCS in the CDM, REDD+ and the other agreements reached in Cancun represent progress in managing issues related to climate change, but there is still a long way to go before frameworks are in place to govern reduced emissions from both developed and developing countries that meet global climate ambitions.
