China Energy & Carbon Emissions Outlook
Ecoal, Vol. 74, May 2011
The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory recently published 'China's Energy and Carbon Emissions Outlook to 2050' , providing forecasts on China's future energy supply and demand based on two energy scenarios. Coal is expected to remain the dominant fuel in the country's primary energy demand mix under both of these scenarios.
One of the key trends in China's energy sector is an increase in energy demand by 60%-100% through to 2050. This is mainly because of the on-going process of urbanisation and growing household incomes. The paper forecasts that there will be almost 500 million new urban residents in China between 2009 and 2050 and growing household incomes will result in more people owning cars and electric appliances. It is also expected that industry will account for a smaller proportion of the country's energy consumption, going down from 61% to 47% under the baseline energy scenario. Energy demand is set to decline mainly in the iron, steel, and cement sectors, as production of these products is expected to peak in 2020 and to decrease thereafter.
Energy Scenarios
The paper is based on two energy scenarios:
- baseline scenario (or CIS - "continued improvement scenario"); and
- alternative scenario (or AIS - "accelerated improvement scenario").
The baseline scenario is based on the assumption that the Chinese economy will continue on a path of lowering its energy intensity as a function of GDP, achieving energy efficiency levels that are common in most industrialised countries. The alternative scenario assumes a much more ambitious trajectory and the implementation of alternative energy technologies.
Primary Energy Demand Under Each Scenario
Primary Energy
Under both scenarios coal will remain the dominant element in China's primary energy demand, representing 30%-47% in 2050. The strong presence of coal under both scenarios is mainly due to its role as a key energy resource used in industry, despite the projected decrease noted earlier (see graph).
Electricity Generation
Under the models, coal could represent between 49% and 77% of China's total electricity generation in 2030 and between 9% and 49% in 2050. The reason for the potential decrease in coal's share in China's electricity mix by 2050 is attributed to the potential increase in nuclear power generation capacity.
A variation of the baseline scenario also includes CCS as an option for lowering China's CO2 emissions. Under this scenario, CCS represents 1%-4% of total power capacity in 2050, allowing up to a 15% decrease in CO2 emissions from the power sector.
