World Energy Outlook 2009

Ecoal December 2009, Volume 69

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently launched its 'World Energy Outlook 2009' (WEO). This year's report sees significant changes to the IEA's projections due to the impact the financial crisis has had on global energy markets over 2008/09. This has significantly affected the short-term picture, with 2009 set to see annual global energy use fall for the first time since 1981.

The new WEO assesses two scenarios; the Reference Scenario, which assumes governments make no significant changes to existing policies and the 450 Scenario, which assumes global policy action is taken to limit the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million of CO₂-equivalent (ppm CO₂-eq).

Reference Scenario

Under this scenario, the report projects the following changes:

• World primary energy demand to increase by 1.5% per year between 2007 and 2030 - an overall increase of 40%.
• Fossil fuels to account for over three quarters of the overall increase in energy use between 2007 and 2030, with coal accounting for the biggest proportion of this increase.
• Energy related CO₂ emissions to reach 34.5 Gt in 2020 and 40.2 Gt in 2030, up from 28.8 Gt in 2007.

While the projected levels of emissions are 5% lower in 2020 than those projected in WEO 2008, the IEA still warns that the heavy reliance on unabated fossil fuels witnessed under the Reference Scenario could result in atmospheric GHG concentration levels of over 1000 ppm CO₂-eq. This would also have negative impacts on energy security as countries would become increasingly reliant on imports, particularly of natural gas.

450 Scenario

According to the report, stabilising atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO₂-eq will limit the probability of a global average temperature increase in excess of 2 degrees Celsius to around 50%. The 450 Scenario will require:

• Global energy related CO₂ emissions to peak at 30.9 Gt just before 2020, declining to 26.4 Gt in 2030.
• Primary energy demand to grow just 20% between 2007 and 2030 as a result of increased energy efficiency in buildings and industry.

Under this scenario, CCS in the power sector and industry accounts for 10% of emissions savings in 2030 relative to the Reference Scenario. The deployment of CCS will be particularly vital in the US and China, which are projected to account for over half of all emissions reduction in the power sector. However, despite the widespread deployment of CCS, coal would be the only fuel to witness a fall in demand between 2007 and 2030, partly due to the increased reliance on gas.

Financial Requirements

The report warns that the recent fall in energy investment, as a result of the financial crisis, could have a negative impact in terms of energy security, climate change and energy poverty. While the IEA commends the recent clean energy elements of the various economic stimulus packages around the world, it calls for further action to be taken on a larger scale in order to achieve what it calls a 'Clean Energy New Deal'.