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IEA Releases CCS Roadmap

Ecoal December 2009, Volume 69

The IEA recently released its "Technology Roadmap for Carbon Capture and Storage". The Roadmap has been developed as a response to the huge challenge of moving large-scale global CCS deployment beyond the four commercial-scale projects currently in operation and as a result of requests from the G8 and other governments for more detailed analysis regarding the growth pathway for CCS.

The release of the roadmap was timely, with the future of CCS under a new international climate change agreement set to be become clearer following the climate talks in Copenhagen.

A key point arising from the report was the IEA's call for 100 CCS projects to be deployed by 2020. This figure is a significant increase on the IEA's previous estimated requirement of 30 projects by 2020 and gained much attention in the media.

The report includes an overview of the current status of CCS, including existing levels of finance committed by governments around the world, and analysis of CCS deployment requirements under the IEA's 'BLUE Map' Scenario. This scenario was initially outlined in the IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2008 and responds to the call to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050. A roadmap for CCS, along with 16 other key mitigation technologies, was first proposed in ETP 2008, but this new report develops those initial recommendations further. Under the BLUE Map Scenario, CCS would be set to deliver one-fifth of the required 50% reduction in GHG emissions.

Investment Requirements

A number of key investment requirements were outlined in order to achieve the required CCS deployment rate:

  • An additional global investment of at least US$2.5-3 trillion between 2010 and 2050 in order to achieve a project deployment target of 100 projects by 2020 and over 3000 projects by 2050.
  • Average annual investment in CCS demonstration by OECD governments to increase to US$3.5-4 billion between 2010 and 2020.
  • CCS financing levels of US$1.5-2.5 billion annually in developing countries (through international collaboration). The report calls for CCS to be included under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or any replacement mechanism developed as part of a new international climate change agreement in order to raise this finance.

These figures, particularly those for the average investment by OECD governments, are significant as they far outstrip the current levels of finance outlined earlier in the report. For example, one-off investments by the Australian (US$1.65 billion), Canadian (US$1.2 billion) and US (US$3.4 billion) governments will have to be upscaled and pledged on an annual basis in order for the IEA's recommended CCS deployment rate to be met.

According to the roadmap, over 3000 CCS projects are required by 2050 and around 55% (5.5 GtCO2/year) of these will need to be deployed in the power sector. Coal-fired power accounts for around 65% of this figure, with the vast majority of projects needing to be deployed in China, India and other non-OECD countries.

The report goes further than the analysis of ETP 2008 by breaking down requirements in terms of CO2 capture, storage and transportation. The requirements for CO2 capture focus primarily on the remaining technology gaps for all capture methods (in terms of availability, efficiency and cost reduction) and outline key RD&D needs between 2010 and 2020 to bridge these gaps and deploy projects at the rate necessary to 2050. The transport and storage requirements focus on deployment potential and investment requirements globally and by region.

  • Global investment in CO2 pipeline development will have to total US$825 billion between 2010 and 2050.
  • Global storage investment will have to total US$88-650 billion over the same period.
  • Almost 50% of initial storage and transport infrastructure will be developed in OECD North America and Europe, with deployment rates in non-OECD countries increasing rapidly beyond 2020.

Graph: Total CCS Investment 2010-2050 by Region

Government Outreach & International Collaboration

In addition to financial and deployment requirements, the report also makes recommendations for governments to help educate and engage with the public at large. These include a call for the formalisation of an international network on CCS public education and engagement by 2010, with the development of a CCS education toolkit by 2011. Key actions required to push forward this network and toolkit include:

  • Enhanced funding from governments into outreach and education.
  • Development of regulations requiring public consultation for all planned CCS projects.
  • Transparency of information and development of guidelines for developers to consult with the public on CCS risks and benefits.

Requirements for international collaboration, in addition to the funding already mentioned, are outlined in order to accelerate CCS deployment in emerging economies

  • Identification of priority countries for CCS implementation by 2011.
  • Development of national CCS roadmaps by 2013 for priority countries.
  • Creation of new international and regional institutions and support mechanisms to help with deployment in priority countries.

Overall, the report demonstrates further support from the IEA for CCS to be considered as one of the 17 key mitigation technologies towards cutting emissions 50% by 2050 under the BLUE Map Scenario. The publication of a document solely focused on CCS, with particular attention paid to each stage of the technology chain, will help to provide policymakers with the extra information required to make the necessary RD&D commitments to CCS.