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Monthly Archives: June 2011

European Commission’s 2050 low-carbon roadmap fails to inspire

Aleksandra Tomczak, European Specialist

Aleksandra Tomczak, European Specialist

This week’s meeting of European environment ministers in Luxembourg saw Poland block the European Commission’s proposed 2050 low-carbon road map. Poland’s environment minister said he expected greater solidarity within Europe and an understanding of the situation of specific member states.

Poland generates over 90% of its electricity from coal and the industry plays an important role in its economic development. A recent report by the World Bank showed that the current EU climate policy would reduce the country’s GDP by 2% points each year for the next 10 years and could bring a loss of employment of up to 7.4% between 2015 and 2030.

Within the EU, Poland has consistently argued for priority to be placed on economic growth and industrial development. As one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and the only country to have maintained its economic growth throughout the economic crisis, Poland is the EU’s version of China.

The rejection of the 2050 low-carbon roadmap shows that the European Commission’s (EC) climate policy fails to bridge the integrated priorities of economic development and climate action. The rejected roadmap raises the question of the EU’s capacity to lead on climate change. If the EC fails to propose an emissions reduction roadmap that would bring on board a growing economy with a large industrial sector within its political boundaries, how does it expect to inspire large emerging economies to follow its example in the global fight against climate change?

Instead of satisfying itself with setting targets, the European Commission should come up with a plan on how to minimise the costs of mitigating climate change. Improving the efficiency of coal-fired power plants, ensuring that all new power plants are as efficient as possible, investing in CCS and other innovative low-carbon technologies – these should be the new areas of focus for policy makers who are serious about climate change.

June 24, 2011 | Categories: Climate change, Coal News, WCA

OUTCOMES OF BONN – LOCKED IN-BETWEEN TRACKS

Aleksandra Tomczak, European Specialist

Aleksandra Tomczak, European Specialist

The Climate Change Conference in Bonn ended last Friday with most of the important decisions being left until future meetings. Discussions faltered in between different negotiation tracks as developed and developing countries maintained their long held positions with the key stumbling block -the future role of the Kyoto Protocol – preventing any major decisions being reached.

During the two weeks in Bonn, developing countries asked that the industrialised countries sign up for a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. They also said this was a prerequisite for the developing world becoming more cooperative on the issue of a comprehensive post 2012 framework.  Developed countries used the same tactics to block discussions on further commitments under Kyoto, saying they demanded progress on the long-term framework first. This hostage-taking continued until the end of the conference as none of the Parties changed their initial positions.

The only likely outcome now is a regulatory gap between the expiry of the first Kyoto commitment period and whenever a future agreement is ratified. This will cause uncertainty for the future of mechanisms such as the CDM but also lead to a widening of the gap between the stated 2°C target and current emission reduction pledges, which still need to be reviewed.

The run-up to Durban

More progress can perhaps be made on new institutions and bodies such as the Technology Mechanism, where negotiators seemed to have moved ahead during the Bonn session. On the other hand, one of the other key institutions agreed on in Cancun, the Green Climate Fund, is also currently held hostage in the conflict between the supporters of a second commitment under Kyoto and the adoption of a new and comprehensive post 2012 framework.

Given the lack of progress in Bonn, planning is underway for an additional inter-sessional round of negotiations to be held before Ministers convene in Durban at the end of the year. In Durban, the forthcoming South African COP presidency, plans are to prioritise issues of importance to the African continent; energy access, sustainable development and financing. However, Parties themselves have not yet agreed on what they expect from Durban. Developing countries continue to demand more progress on the Kyoto Protocol; developed countries keep asking for more advancement on the post 2012 framework.

Unless this dilemma is solved, there seems to be little scope for either a major breakthrough at Durban or for a substantial implementation of the Cancun Agreements before 2012.

June 22, 2011 | Categories: Climate change, Coal News

Bonn – a challenging start

Aleksandra Tomczak, European Specialist

Aleksandra Tomczak, European Specialist

Last week the UN began its two week climate change conference in Bonn, which will prepare the way for the end of year ministerial-level Climate Summit in Durban, South Africa.

During the first three days the talks stalled as delegates tried to agree on an agenda that would reflect the interests of all Parties. Developing countries were generally more interested in financing issues, adaptation and the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol; while delegates from industrialised countries wanted to focus more on monitoring, reporting and verification mechanisms.

Bleak Future for Kyoto

At the start of the talks, Christiana Figueres, the UN’s climate chief, said that it was already too late to launch a binding successor to Kyoto before the current commitment period ends in 2012. Even if Parties agreed on a legal text for a second commitment period, legislative ratifications would take too long to ensure a transition without gaps.

At the same time, there is little appetite for another round of commitments among the key Kyoto signatories. At the recent G8 meeting in Dauville, Japan, France and Russia said they would not sign up for another commitment period under Kyoto, unless the emerging economies of China, India and Brazil agreed to enter a binding deal.

Developing countries continue to argue that industrialised economies should be held responsible for reducing global CO2 emissions.

The EU, traditionally one of the most ambitious in climate change negotiations, now says it will only be willing to sign up to a second commitment period if other major CO2 emitters agree to take part in the global mitigation effort.

Since the agendas were finally agreed on Thursday, delegates have been particularly engaged in debating the legal form of the future climate agreement and the potential of NAMAs (Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions) to deliver CO2 cuts in developing countries. Negotiations on other issues, such as the establishment of a Green Climate Fund and the formal inclusion of CCS in CDM, aren’t on the agenda this time round because they’ve been referred to other bodies, but are still being discussed behind the scenes.

Getting to Durban

South Africa is beginning to take the lead as the Durban conference approaches. It announced plans to carry out a number of consultations with Parties, experts and stakeholders before Durban. There are also plans to hold additional negotiations in the autumn. The prospect of an intense negotiating period in the run up to Durban injected a dose of optimism among the delegates in Bonn and made many more confident that progress will be made on key issues.

The WCA is now participating in the second week of negotiations. The coming days are likely to give us a better understanding of the Parties’ expectations for the Durban climate talks and bring more clarity on the issue of the legal form of a future agreement.

June 13, 2011 | Categories: Climate change, Coal News

Bringing coal back to the mitigation debate

Milton Catelin, Chief Executive, WCA

Milton Catelin, Chief Executive, WCA

I recently spoke at this year’s European Economic Congress in Katowice, Poland. Many speakers, including the European Commissioners for Budget and for Industry and Enterprise, Janusz Lewandowski and Antonio Tajani, criticised the EU for dealing too much with itself and its own climate targets and getting marginalised at international climate negotiations.

It’s true; setting targets, instead of acting, and failing to minimise the costs of climate mitigation is not helping international climate talks. Expensive climate policies, which raise the cost of mitigating climate change in the EU, set an unhelpful example for the rest of the world. It is hard to imagine that any developing country would get inspired by the EU’s climate policies if they come at a cost of slowing down their economic growth.

But cost-effective reductions in CO2 emissions are possible. Replacing old coal-fired capacities with modern highly efficient plants is an inexpensive way of delivering CO2 cuts.

Poland has taken this approach to deal with the CO2 footprint of its energy sector. In Lagisza, an old coal-fired power plant with 36% efficiency was recently replaced by modern supercritical technology which allows efficiency levels of over 43%. As a result, across 460MW capacity of coal-fired electricity generation, CO2 emissions were reduced by 20% and at a cost of €400 million. In comparison, the largest wind farm in the UK, representing 300MW of maximum generation capacity and 75MW of average output cost €885 million. This is 12 times more expensive per unit of electricity.

Poland was the only country in the EU to maintain economic growth during the economic crisis. Poland’s energy policy is based on the premise that cleaner coal solutions will continue fuelling the economic growth of the country, while ensuring energy supplies remain affordable. If, in the future, highly efficient coal-fired power plants and CCS can deliver CO2 cuts, coal-rich countries such as Poland should be able to take this path to optimise the costs of climate mitigation.

Successful reconciliation of Poland’s coal-based energy generation with the EU’s climate priorities would give a positive example to many developing countries which use coal as their primary source of energy. But for this to happen, there should be a better recognition of the potential of advanced coal technologies at the EU level.

Greater financing for ALL low emission technologies and technology neutral CO2 reduction targets would be the first step in this direction.

June 6, 2011 | Categories: Climate change, WCA
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